Despite substantial disease burden, existing evidence on the risk factors for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) have been derived primarily from cross-sectional studies without determining temporality. Therefore, we aimed to systematically synthesize the literature on longitudinal risk factors for sleep study-assessed OSA and questionnaire-assessed probable OSA from cohort studies in the general adult population settings. We systematically searched Embase and Medline (on OVID) databases. Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses were not conducted due to methodological heterogeneity of exposure and outcome measurements. There was consistent evidence that weight gain was associated with incident (n = 2) and greater severity (n = 2) of OSA. One study each observed an association of higher baseline body-mass index, male sex, asthma, a specific genetic polymorphism in rs12415421, and insulin resistance/hyperglycemia, with incident OSA. Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution (NO2, n = 1) was associated with OSA, and menopausal transitions (n = 1) with higher apnea-hypopnea index. There were no eligible studies on long-term smoking or alcohol use. In conclusion, approximately 10% increase in weight, especially in males, might alert clinicians to consider potential or worsening OSA. Large, well-designed longitudinal studies are needed to consolidate knowledge on other associations with OSA development, especially on potentially modifiable risk factors.
